Online poker variance and
downswings are a normal and ... scary element of
poker. We all moan about our misfortune but as I
learn every day that passes, there are always worse.
In this article we will refer to the ugly side of
variance will trying to understand and find ways to
treat it. If you have never played online with a
fluctuation emulator online, I urge you to do. The
results will shock you. I am lost from poker for two
almost years with only one month with gains in the
last 20 - and Nevertheless, it turns out that this
phenomenon is not so rare.
The simulation of a professional career full of cash
games at a steady win rate can provide us enough ...
terrifying results. I performed 1,000 simulations
for limit hold 'em with win rates of the order of 6
big blinds / 100 hands and standard deviation of 50
big blinds / 100 hands. And 1,000 players are
expected to win 3.000 big blinds in a period of one
year (50.000 hands). The luckiest of them wins 8.000
blinds and the most unlucky loses 1.000 blinds
around, within a year. The biggest downswing of
these thousand simulations is 1.811 big blinds -
over 900 big bets! 20% of these simulations
experienced downswing of around 800 BB ' s in this
year.
In NL Hold'em variation is relatively lower due to
higher win rates. Although the standard deviation is
greater, one that the probability of losing three
stacks within an hour is much higher in the NL than
what the limit, players no-limit are consistently
higher win rates in BB / 100 hands . In simulations
winners NL Hold'em players playing live with win
rate 15BBs / 100 hands and standard deviation 100BBs
/ 100 hands the swings are even more frightening,
but the situation is improving after several hands
in the same year. The average winning player expects
to win 7.500 big blinds. Someone wins over 14.000
BBs while another has hardly profit.
The first thing that comes to my mind is that we all
sometimes play a disproportionately stakes of our
bankroll. Risking much, consciously or not, but
Nevertheless gamble. These simulations do not take
into account information such as the rise in stakes,
to which the win rates are reduced to Bibs / 100 and
standard deviations are increased. The lower the win
rate and the higher the standard deviation, the more
"mad" are swings. And, unfortunately, there is
something else we can do beyond accepting and learn
them to live with them.
Going down in stakes will be able to lessen the
insufficiency of our bankroll. If a very bad session
«hurt» our bankroll, then obviously we play high on
our data, stakes. At lower stakes, you may earn less
money per hour but the win rate in Bibs / 100 hands
will grow. The highest win rate makes it more likely
profitable sessions and as a result, boost our
confidence. Additionally, the way we focus on our
core expertise, we are not afraid to invest money in
our decisions and is not so concerned for our more
advanced rivals.