Online poker variance and downswings are a normal and ... scary element of poker. We all moan about our misfortune but as I learn every day that passes, there are always worse. In this article we will refer to the ugly side of variance will trying to understand and find ways to treat it. If you have never played online with a fluctuation emulator online, I urge you to do. The results will shock you. I am lost from poker for two almost years with only one month with gains in the last 20 - and Nevertheless, it turns out that this phenomenon is not so rare.

The simulation of a professional career full of cash games at a steady win rate can provide us enough ... terrifying results. I performed 1,000 simulations for limit hold 'em with win rates of the order of 6 big blinds / 100 hands and standard deviation of 50 big blinds / 100 hands. And 1,000 players are expected to win 3.000 big blinds in a period of one year (50.000 hands). The luckiest of them wins 8.000 blinds and the most unlucky loses 1.000 blinds around, within a year. The biggest downswing of these thousand simulations is 1.811 big blinds - over 900 big bets! 20% of these simulations experienced downswing of around 800 BB ' s in this year.

In NL Hold'em variation is relatively lower due to higher win rates. Although the standard deviation is greater, one that the probability of losing three stacks within an hour is much higher in the NL than what the limit, players no-limit are consistently higher win rates in BB / 100 hands . In simulations winners NL Hold'em players playing live with win rate 15BBs / 100 hands and standard deviation 100BBs / 100 hands the swings are even more frightening, but the situation is improving after several hands in the same year. The average winning player expects to win 7.500 big blinds. Someone wins over 14.000 BBs while another has hardly profit.

The first thing that comes to my mind is that we all sometimes play a disproportionately stakes of our bankroll. Risking much, consciously or not, but Nevertheless gamble. These simulations do not take into account information such as the rise in stakes, to which the win rates are reduced to Bibs / 100 and standard deviations are increased. The lower the win rate and the higher the standard deviation, the more "mad" are swings. And, unfortunately, there is something else we can do beyond accepting and learn them to live with them. Going down in stakes will be able to lessen the insufficiency of our bankroll. If a very bad session «hurt» our bankroll, then obviously we play high on our data, stakes. At lower stakes, you may earn less money per hour but the win rate in Bibs / 100 hands will grow. The highest win rate makes it more likely profitable sessions and as a result, boost our confidence. Additionally, the way we focus on our core expertise, we are not afraid to invest money in our decisions and is not so concerned for our more advanced rivals.